ENDcast is a climate-driven disease forecasting platform that provides early warnings of infectious disease outbreaks up to six months in advance. The platform assists local, national, and regional decision-makers in anticipating disease risks to plan interventions needed to protect public health.

Problem

Many infectious diseases are strongly influenced by climate conditions such as temperature, rainfall and other large-scale weather patterns. However, health authorities often lack practical tools that translate climate variability into useful disease forecasts. Without early warnings, responses to outbreaks are mostly reactive, which can increase health impacts and translate into additional pressure on public health systems.

Solution

ENDcast estimates disease outbreak risk by combining climate indicators, historical disease data and seasonal patterns within a single modeling framework. The system analyzes climate signals together with geographic and seasonal factors to produce monthly forecasts with an outlook of one to six months. The results are delivered through an interactive web platform where users can explore past disease trends, assess how well the models performed in previous situations and visualize the probability of outbreaks in the coming months.